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Free Probability Calculator (+ Guide)

A free probability calculator for 2 events, repeated tries and combinations, with each answer as a percent and as odds.

Navid Moazzezby Navid Moazzez·Updated 3. okt. 2026·3 min read·
Work out any chance
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Work out the chance of 2 events, of something happening in repeated tries, or of a lottery-style pick.

1

Your numbers

Independent: one doesn't change the other, like 2 coin flips. Can't both happen: like rolling a 1 and a 6 on 1 die.

2

Your result

Fill in the fields above to see your result.

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This free probability calculator works out the chance of 2 events, of something happening in repeated tries, or of a lottery-style pick.

It gives each answer as a percent and as odds (1 in N), and draws every outcome of repeated tries on a chart.

I built it because "what are the chances?" comes up all the time, and the formulas behind it are short once you see them.

Here are the 3 kinds of question it answers, a worked example, and the classic mistakes.

key_takeaways.mdTL;DR

Key takeaways

For 2 independent events, both happen with probability A × B, and at least one with A + B − A × B.
The chance of something happening at least once in n tries is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ.
The binomial formula gives the chance of exactly k successes in n tries.
Combinations count picks where order doesn't matter, like a lottery ticket; permutations count every order.
Rolling a 6 at least once in 4 rolls is about 51.8%, a little better than a coin flip.

What is a probability calculator?

A probability calculator turns a question about chances into a number between 0% and 100%.

This one covers the 3 questions people ask most: 2 events, repeated tries, and how many ways to pick.

The 3 kinds of question

Pick the kind, type the numbers, and read the answer with its formula.

Work out a probability0/4

2 events

If 2 events are independent, like 2 coin flips, multiply their chances for both. If they can't both happen, like rolling a 1 and a 6 on 1 die, add them for either.

Repeated tries

The chance of at least 1 success is easier to find backwards: 1 minus the chance of failing every time.

For an exact count, the calculator uses the binomial formula as the NIST handbook gives it: C(n, k) × pᵏ × (1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ.

Combinations

The number of ways to pick 6 numbers from 49 is C(49, 6) = 13,983,816, so 1 ticket has a 1 in 13,983,816 chance.

A worked example

Here's the example the calculator loads: a 16.67% chance (rolling a 6), 4 tries.

The chance of at least one 6 is 1 − 0.8333⁴ = 51.8%. The chance of exactly one 6 is 38.6%.

Mistakes to avoid

These are the classic probability traps.

  • Adding chances of independent events: 2 coin flips aren't a 100% chance of heads
  • Thinking a streak changes the next try: a fair die has no memory
  • Using combinations when order matters, like a race's top 3
  • Treating events that affect each other as independent

Who is the probability calculator for?

It's for students, gamers and anyone curious about odds, and these tools help around it.

The odds are just math, so check them before you bet on them.

Plan your money with your AI

Take your numbers further in

Probability Calculator FAQs

Questions about the probability calculator? Here's what to know.

A probability calculator works out the chance of an event as a percent or as odds.

This free one covers 2 events, repeated tries and combinations.

For independent events, multiply their chances for both.

For either, add them and take away the chance of both.

About 51.8%, which is 1 − (5/6)⁴.

It's C(n, k) × pᵏ × (1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ, the chance of exactly k successes in n tries.

Combinations ignore order and permutations count every order.

A lottery ticket is a combination; a race's top 3 is a permutation.

1 in 13,983,816 for a single ticket.

Divide 1 by the probability: 25% is 1 in 4.

No, independent tries like dice rolls don't remember earlier results.

Yes, it's free with no sign-up.

It runs in your browser, and your numbers stay on your device.

I did.

I'm Navid Moazzez, and I made the probability calculator as one of my free tools on navid.me.

More about me.

Navid Moazzez

AI business strategist & AI OS builder

Navid Moazzez helps creators and founders master AI and build their own AI Operating System (AI OS) to automate their business and life.

Navid.me is reader-supported. When you buy through links on this site, I may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.

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